Commie Pervert Geek Girl, May 2005
Originally published in Express

Actually, a true worst case scenario isn't very interesting. Sure, it would be a tragedy if the planet was reduced to a radioactive cinder devoid of all life before I get to see the Firefly movie, but what more is there to say? There are no possibilities left - game over, thank you for playing. So let's take a step back and look at the mere total collapse of global civilization.

There are a disturbing number of problems that could potentially bring this about in the relatively near future. Environmental disaster through human-induced climate change, pollution, or over-exploitation. Oil shortages and war over dwindling reserves that can no longer meet the growing global demand. Or the imaginary foundations of the world economy simply vanishing beneath us.

Far too much of the modern capitalist economy is based on nothing but speculation; it can last only as long as the confidence of the investors. With US debt spiralling out of control, how long before it begins to look like a bad bet? If the world's largest economy falls, the global effects will be drastic. The World Bank recently expressed confidence that there won't be an economic catastrophe in the next six to nine months. Is it just me, or is it less than entirely reassuring when a statement about the unlikeliness of catastrophe needs to be qualified with a timespan of less than a year?

So what would a post-apocalyptic world look like for queer kiwis? New Zealand would fare better than most parts of the world, thanks to its isolation, low population, and abundant natural resources. However, we could still expect chaos in the wake of the end of large scale international trade, and a serious decline in average standard of living. Severe social upheaval would be inevitable.

In such conditions, all kinds of extremist groups are likely to thrive. It's a safe bet that a number of them would blame it all on God's wrath, a punishment for the immorality of modern society as exemplified by freedom of religion, tolerance of homosexuals and single mothers, and Harry Potter. We could end up with our own equivalent of the Taliban running the show.

This scenario is by no means certain; perhaps not even likely. But we can't afford to assume that the world will carry on just the way it is now for ever. I do think at least a global recession or depression is probable in the next few years, and with the correlation between prosperity and tolerance, this would be a double hit for the queer community.

New Zealand needs to make itself less reliant on the rest of the world. Rather than increasing exports to countries that won't be able to pay us, and catering to tourists who'll stop coming, we should be manufacturing local alternatives to products that we currently import. We certainly shouldn't cease international trade altogether, but we can't afford to depend upon it to the extent that we do now.